Dollar Trades Stably Awaiting Interest Rate Decisions in Brazil

Key Takeaways

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The morning purchase rate for Brazils 10-year government bond due in 2035 slightly decreased from 14.050 to 14.000 on March 16, 2026, but remains higher than the record low of 10.610 seen in February 2024.
The Brazilian market anticipates a potential 0.25 percentage point cut in the Selic rate, which would lower it to 14.75% per year, marking the first reduction since May 2024.
Geopolitical tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran continue without signs of de-escalation, potentially impacting local and global economies.
In January 2026, key economic indicators were reported, including a total Internal Debt Interest of BRL 1,077,690,805, with public accounts borrowing BRL 939,109,105 through securities debt and banking debt showing a deficit of BRL 70,044,558.

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On Wednesday, March 18, 2026, the dollar remained nearly stable as investors considered interest rate decisions in Brazil and the United States, alongside the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Recent data from Brazil’s National Treasury Secretariat (available in the Brazil Premium Databases Interest and Foreign Exchange Rates, Table BR.MI: Tesouro Direto: Government Bonds Yield: by Maturity: 2035) indicates the following: On March 17, 2026, the morning purchase rate for Brazil’s 10-year government bond due in 2035 was 13.830, down from 14.050 the previous day. From February 2024 to March 17, 2026, the daily average morning purchase rate for this bond was 14.570, based on 526 observations. The rate reached an all-time high of 15.280 on April 9, 2025, and a record low of 10.610 on February 7, 2024. On March 16, the purchase rate was 14.050, a slight decrease from the previous day’s rate of 14.000. On March 16, 2026, yields for Brazil’s 10-year government bond maturing in 2035 were: Morning purchase rate: 14.050 Purchase price (morning): BRL 830.930 Sale price (morning): BRL 825.620 Base price (morning): BRL 825.620 General yield: 14.170

Also on March 16, 2026, rates and prices for the Brazil Tesouro IPCA with semiannual interest payments maturing in 2035 were: Morning purchase rate: 7.850 Purchase price (morning): BRL 4,234.690 Sale price (morning): BRL 2,346.320 Base price (morning): BRL 4,200.780 Sale rate (morning): 7.760 Purchase rate (morning): 7.640 Around 9:24 am, the American currency was up 0.25%, at R$5.2123. Meanwhile, the Ibovespa, the main index of the Brazilian stock exchange, opens at 10 am. Investors are closely watching interest rate decisions in Brazil and the United States, particularly the announcements scheduled for “Super Thursday.” The market largely anticipates a 0.25 percentage point cut in Brazil, which would lower the Selic, the country’s basic interest rate, to 14.75% per year. If confirmed, this would be the first Selic reduction since May 2024—nearly two years. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to maintain current rates. With no end in sight to the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, economists expect that local and global impacts will hinge on the conflict’s duration. To date, there are no signs of de-escalation after three weeks.

Brazilian Economic Indicators and Geopolitical Tensions Impacting Internal Debt in January 2026

In January 2026, key economic indicators were reported, including the growth of the industrial production index, national government debt, tax revenue, consolidated fiscal balance, employed persons count, labor force participation rate, unemployment rate, and monthly earnings from October 2025. Also in January 2026, Brazil’s Internal Debt Interest totaled BRL 1,077,690,805. Public accounts borrowed BRL 939,109,105 through securities debt. Banking debt showed a deficit of BRL 70,044,558, and total internal borrowing from TNBacen was BRL 16,299,336. G1 reports that tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have led the US to deploy deep-penetration bombs against Iran’s anti-ship systems along this critical global oil route.

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