Dollar Falls to R$5.12, Lowest in Almost 2 Years

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On Wednesday, February 25, the U.S. dollar fell by 0.60 to close at R$5.1246, its lowest value since May 21, 2024. The Ibovespa, the main index of the Brazilian stock exchange, decreased by 0.13% to 191,247 points. Investors reacted to statements made by U.S. President Donald Trump and to the political climate in Brazil. The stock exchange experienced pressure from shares of major banks, such as Itaú (down 0.79%), despite Vale’s rise of 2.55%. In the U.S., ahead of a trip to Beijing, Trump avoided mentioning China in his State of the Union address but threatened Iran and cited the operation leading to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Trump’s address also highlighted intended policies that have contributed to market uncertainty, such as inflation and trade tariffs. The speech occurred amid a drop in his approval ratings, and allies fear that these indices could influence midterm elections.

Uncertainties regarding President Trump’s trade policies have contributed to market instability. On Monday, February 23, the dollar hit its lowest point in nearly 20 months, closing at R$5.169, while the Ibovespa index also dipped, ending at 188,853 points with a 0.88% decrease. This drop follows a series of declines for the dollar since the Real Plan. As part of the U.S. agenda, investors await Nvidia’s earnings report, which will be released after market close, amid uncertainty in the artificial intelligence sector. Over the past week, the USD has remained fairly stable, losing approximately 2.119 of its value compared to the previous week. The exchange rate has fluctuated between R$5.2383 on February 19 and R$5.12435 on February 25. On February 20, 2026, the dollar ended the day at R$5.2271. According to G1, the National Treasury reported that the central government registered a primary surplus of R$86.9 billion in January, exceeding the expected surplus of R$88.8 billion. Discourses by leaders from the Federal Reserve (the U.S. central bank) are also expected, and weekly currency transaction data will be disclosed. Additional data includes:

Dollar Dips Further at R$5.169 – Traders Eye Fed Statements for Clues on Market Trends

As of February 13, the total foreign exchange flow is R$6.556 billion for the year, with financial channels contributing R$6.041 billion to the surplus. The R$4.5 billion bond issuance from Tesouro was settled on February 20; this influx may have contributed to the dollar’s weakness. There was over R$16 billion in futures liquidity, primarily in the March contract. Interest rate futures rose despite the Brazilian Real’s gains. Session data shows a near-doji for USDBRL (spot close). Important dollar support levels are at 5.2124, 5.2037, and 5.1640. Dollar resistance is at 5.3805, 5.2814, and 5.2426 (Tenkansen). The biggest one-day change occurred on February 25, with a 0.520 decrease in value. [Note: The preceding text does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the Uai portal.] Given the recent bond issuance and shifts in interest rate futures, traders will closely monitor upcoming Federal Reserve statements and weekly currency data for further indications of market trends.

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