Dollar Opens High with Focus on Unemployment in Brazil

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The dollar began its ascent this Friday (27th), opening at R$5.2654, a 0.18% increase. The Ibovespa, Brazil’s main stock exchange index, opened at 10 a.m. In the United States, President Donald Trump extended the pause on attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure for ten days. Investors, however, remain concerned about potential impacts on the global oil supply, sustaining the negative trend seen in recent sessions. Internationally, oil prices are rising, while futures contracts for major New York stock exchanges are declining. European stock markets are also down. As risk aversion increases, the dollar is strengthening against other currencies, and bond markets are undergoing repricing as investors anticipate shifts in global monetary policy. Brazil’s nominal GDP is approximately 11.7 trillion reais, with an average income of around 55,210 reais per person. In 2024, Brazil’s economy featured a moderate inflation rate of 4.37%, solid GDP growth of 3.40%, and moderate unemployment around 7.63%. The government’s fiscal deficit is 6.87% of GDP. Brazil’s debt in 2024 was 93.93% of its total GDP, with a population of approximately 212 million. In 2023, Brazil’s budget balance was -6.87% of GDP. Currently, one U.S. dollar is worth approximately 0.19 reais.

John recently met with Alex and Sarah to discuss the latest revisions to the website redesign plan. Discussions covered the new homepage layout, improvements to the navigation menu, and the need for a clearer call-to-action button, which John believes will enhance user-friendliness and increase conversions. He will contact the design team to begin implementation. In the meantime, he will continue working on the content strategy and optimizing for search engines. Mike is diligently working on the backend development. John plans to schedule a meeting soon to review Mike’s progress and address any questions. Overall, the project appears to be progressing well, with John keeping everyone informed to ensure timely completion. Key dates for next week: March 26: Beginning of BCB National Monetary Council Meeting (midnight); BCB Inflation Report (11:00 a.m.). March 30: Mid-Month CPI mm (projected 0.37); BCB Focus Market Report (11:30 a.m.); BCB Bank Lending mm (expected 0.4). April 1: SP Global Manufacturing PMI (forecast 49.2); Foreign Exchange Flows. April 2: FIPE CPI mm (predicted 0.33); Industrial Production mm and yy (forecasts 1.0 and 0.8 respectively). April 3: CFTC BRL Non-Commercial Net Positions (49.2 K).

On Friday, Brazil’s economic agenda includes the release of external sector data and the February unemployment rate. These indicators may influence expectations regarding economic activity. According to G1, if the figures align with market projections, investors will likely focus more on the international scenario, which has recently been influencing asset behavior. Here are the latest updates for March 24, 2026: CFTC Non-Commercial Net Positions: 49.2 K GDP Growth Rate (Q4 2025): Quarterly: 0.1%; Yearly: 1.8% Unemployment Rate (February 2026): 5.8% Inflation Rate (February 2026): Monthly (CPI mm): 0.70%; Annual (CPI yy): 3.81% FGV Inflation Index (February 2026): IGPDI mm: -0.84; IGPM mm: -0.73; FIPE CPI mm: 0.25 Mid-Month CPI (March 2026): mm: 0.44; yy: 3.90 PPI (January 2026): mm: 0.34; yy: 4.33 BCB Bank Lending (January 2026): -0.2% (month-over-month) Long-Term Interest Rate TJLP (Q1 2026 from BNDES): 9.19% Foreign Direct Investment (February 2026): 6.754 billion; Foreign Exchange Flows: Data pending Current Account (February 2026): Deficit of 5.614 billion Trade Balance (February 2026): Surplus of 4.208 billion Net Debt-to-GDP Ratio (January 2026): 65.0% Nominal Budget Balance (January 2026): R$40.062 billion; Primary Budget Surplus: R$103.689 billion.

Economic Trends in Brazilian Auto Production, Retail Sales, and Services Volume (Feb-Mar 2026)

Auto Production and Sales (February 2026): Production mm: 24.9%; Sales: 8.6% BCB’s IBC-Br Economic Activity Index (January 2026): 0.78 Industrial Production (January 2026): mm: 1.8%; yy: 0.2% SP Global Composite PMI (February 2026): 51.3; Manufacturing PMI: 47.3; Services PMI: 53.1 Services Volume (January 2026): mm: 0.3%; yy: 3.3% FGV Consumer Confidence Index (March 2026): 88.1 Retail Sales (January 2026): mm: 0.4%; yy: 2.8% This data offers a snapshot of current economic trends.

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